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A New Quarter

October 1, 2012 – 5:06 pm

Earnings season starts today but it really heats up in the second week of October. Just as important today begins the final quarter of the year and traditionally the fourth quarter is strong for stock performance. However, October can be volatile and has the dubious honor of having the two worst days in stock market history in 1929 and in 1987 but overall it is generally an up month.

Earnings may not give October the boost it normally enjoys as the experts have downgraded corporate earnings across the board. However, everyone knows that so the actual earnings may not mean much. Look to future guidance as you should every earnings season, but even then the guidance may not be stellar. So what will be the catalyst for the stock market to move up?.

That is going to be an issue. What will provide the expectations for higher stock prices? No one knows, however it is always something. Expect to be surprised. It could be better economic numbers that seem to be turning up, at least here in the U.S. Then again maybe worse numbers coming out of Europe or Asia will pull us down.
It’s always a tug of war.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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