This morning the market is up on the news that consumer spending was higher than expected while incomes, though up, were lower than expected. The savings rate fell to 3.3%. At least we are still saving something. What was interesting about these numbers was that wages and salaries were up .5% but most of that was caused by working longer hours not with an increase in workers.

In every economic recovery jobs lag but the first sign of a jobs recovery is longer work weeks and an increase in part time workers. That seems to be holding true for this one though it seems slower.

ISM manufacturing for February and construction spending for January were also reported this morning. Construction spending was anticipated to be down .6%, an improvement from last month when it was down 1.2%. The actual number was in line with the expectations. The ISM index was targeted to be 58 but came in at 56.5. The market held up after these reports.

The numbers continue to show a slowly improving, struggling economy. Why hasn’t all that government spending translated into a stronger economy?  Maybe because a lot of the spending will happen this year and next and most of the money so far has been used to save the banks. Maybe that was necessary but at some point the rest of the economy needs to recover. Healthier banks have not helped the overall economy yet.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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Also this morning was the Chicago PMI report which was up to 62.6 in February from 61.5 in January. Then a few minutes later February’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report was released which was down to 73.6 from 74.4 in January.

None of these numbers really affected the market when they came out.

By 7:00 this morning the existing housing sales number came out. Earlier in the week we had the new home sales report which was very weak (down 11%) and that put downward pressure on stock prices. This morning’s report when it came out pushed prices down a little but not by much and the market recovered it all. Existing home sales fell 7.2%, more than expected, and inventory increased to 7.8 months in January from 7.2 months in December.

This week was full of statistics and none of them changed the picture of our economy. It is growing but sputtering and it is not producing any jobs. This has heightened fear in the stock market and that is not a bad thing as it means stock prices are not overheating, but neither is there much reason for the market to rise. It is going to be a stock picker’s environment.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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It appears the current corrective phase of the stock market rally that began last March is easing. There have been only three corrections of any consequence in the last year: in June, November and now this one that started in January. The two corrections last year spanned four to six weeks falling 5% to 7%. The current correction is in its sixth week with about a 7.5% correction. Since the correction won’t be over until the prices of the indices recover or exceed their recent highs we can’t say it is over or that it is in fact a correction.

A normal correction is 10% but any fall of 5% or more can be called a correction and a return to a bear market usually means a 20% fall or more. Corrections are normal and during each one fear begins to mount as people speculate on the possibility of returning to the bear market lows of last year. It is normal for fear to grip investors and in fact it is healthy for stock markets when fear has that much power over investors.

It is in the lack of fear where stock markets become over valued. The last clear sign of that was in the dot.com bubble.

So as long as fear holds so many investors frozen on the sidelines and as long as they are making virtually no return in money market funds the stock market will likely only have corrections, not a return to the bear market.

Of course the underlying economy also plays a big roll in bear and bull markets but as we have said in previous commentaries we are in a recovery, slow though it may be.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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On the other hand last night the Fed raised one of the two interest rates it controls. This is the rate that the central bank charges for emergency loans to banks. It went from .50% to .75%. This is a sign that the Fed sees enough improvement in the financial sector to start tightening money though this is one of the most benign tightenings it could undertake.

Inflation and the Fed’s action is good news both for the economy and the stock market. Inflation is not a problem yet and the Fed has signaled a willingness to fight future inflation by making a move, albeit a minor one, early. It is also a sign that the dollar may not be as weak as feared. Of course this is only one small first step. Still the battered dollar is faced with a massive spending program which will continue to push its value down.

All and all this was a good week for the stock market and the economy. Only time will tell us if the correction is over.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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Wholesale inflation numbers reported this morning also jumped. January’s number was up 1.4% but core inflation which excludes food and energy was up only .3%. The problem is that both numbers were above expectations.

We will see retail inflation numbers tomorrow. I have a feeling that the producers might be experiencing inflation but they are going to have a hard time passing it along to the consumers. The economy is just too weak at this point to absorb price increases.

It may not feel like it but the economy is gaining strength and will likely continue to do so throughout most of this year. The stock market will realize this and will rise, just do not expect it to be in a straight line or expect it to be like last year’s rally. The rally is going to be much more muted this year.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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In a world where there will be increasing scrutiny on government debt loads, currency volatility will surely increase.  This is important when investing in companies that have customers located in other countries and accept payments in other currencies.  In today’s increasingly globalized business world it is hard to find many public companies that do not do some sort of business overseas.  Therefore, when looking at potential stocks to buy you must determine what countries in which their foreign revenue are derived.  Then determine if those countries currencies could possibly be at risk of major market disruption.

Over the long term the dollar will most likely weaken unless our historically imprudent government suddenly becomes frugal and we fix our large trade imbalance.  Both of those events seem unlikely.  This makes it likely that over time foreign stocks will continue to have the wind at their backs.  However, until the markets hash out which countries have been irreparably damaged by the financial crisis there will be greater foreign currency market volatility.   You will notice greater price movements in your stocks as a result.

One final note is that China’s currency is tied to the U.S. dollar so there is no fluctuation between the two at this time.

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Either way this correction restores health to our market. Stock prices do no go in one direction without pause either up or down.The odds are good that we will see another leg up once the correction has shaken out the weak hands.

The earnings reports and more importantly the economic data is clearly showing an improving economy. With outsized government spending taking place, this year the economy should gain strength and that will mean strong corporate earnings for most of this year. The market will recognize that at some point.

At the moment, investors and traders are focused on debt. However, one way to trump debt is by a growing economy which will produce more tax dollars. Cutting spending is the only other way to control debt, but that will have to wait. It’s not possible in this political environment, and maybe we shouldn’t cut debt as the economy is very fragile.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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By mid week, after a couple good days, we had a sell off on Thursday which was broad based and painful. However, this morning with the bank stress test and an employment report for April behind us without any surprises the market decided to rally again, at least so far this morning. This is an obvious case of the market climbing a wall of worry.

The economic numbers actually were very encouraging this week. Retail sales were up for April by .3% and for last week up .7%, but what was more surprising was the first time jobless claims which fell by 34,000 this week and the four week average fell as well by 14,759. True jobless claims sit at over 600,000 which are very high but the stock market cares about the trend and is looking for the beginning of the change. That seems to be happening. Can this change turn into actual growth? At some point it will but not for a number of months, maybe by the fourth quarter this year or next. At some point the worry will turn to the strength of the recovery but so far no one is talking about that, yet!

We have had several weeks in which economic numbers, though still showing us that the U.S. economy is in a recession, seem to point to a turn from free falling to just falling or leveling off. The just ended earnings season came in better than expectations. Of course those expectations were severely downgraded at the beginning of the year therefore beating them is not all that difficult. The real test will be the sustainability of improving numbers. Can that happen?

I believe it will. The LIBOR rate is now below 1% when a few months ago it was as high at 5%. That is the rate banks lend to each other. The mortgage rates are at 5% or less and this week we saw productivity increase by .8%. Add these stats to all the others these last few weeks and we have strong evidence that things will get better. Finally, China, who embarked on their own stimulus plan, is already showing signs of strengthening growth despite the slow down in exports. The guidance, by independent firms, is calling for an increase in China’s GDP from 6% growth to 8% this year.

Does this mean the stock market is going to rally straight up from the March 9th low? Probably not. We will have corrections along the way. Any correction will be one to buy not sell. At the same time taking profits every so often is not a bad thing. Since China is already recovering and growing we have increased our exposure to the Asian market. You need to go where the growth is and since the stock markets of the Far East fell a lot harder than ours it has made all of Asia a good place to invest, despite the risks of lack of transparency and multiple books that their companies keep.

It is time to invest and has been for several weeks. No one knows when and where the bottom is but we can look back and clearly see a strong bottom of the various markets that took place on March 9th. Put fear aside and let’s make some money.

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The market struggled this week but was resilient. In the first part of the week fear about the ’stress test’ hovered over the traders. The unknown result will not be known to the public until next week or the week after. On Tuesday there were hints that Bank of America and Citicorp were being pressured to increase their capital structure though the CEOs didn’t agree. That pressure was a direct result of the stress test- at least that is the assumption.

Consumer confidence increased sharply in April. The Conference Board’s reading went from 26.9 to 39.2. That reading is still low but the degree of increase was unexpected. Later in the week a Consumer Sentiment report was released and it too was higher. I would not read too much into these numbers. You can look at actual retail sales each week which will give you more information than a monthly confidence report. Much of the confidence (or lack of confidence) by consumers may mean very little to us as investors. The swine flu for instance may affect consumer confidence but will that mean consumers will stop spending? They might spend differently. Any recent event will affect how people ‘feel’ about things, good or bad, but will it actually spur them to spend or stop spending? The evidence is unclear.

Also out this week was the Case-Shiller 20 city home index report. The problem with this report is it was for February. That is ancient history to the stock market. It showed a fall of 2.2% adding to January’s fall of 2.8%. Prices year over year were down 18.6% from 19% in January. This report is virtually useless. It tells us what happened two months ago. Who cares! I will not be writing about this report in the future. We know from more recent data that sales in homes are increasing and inventory looks to be flattening. It’s still too early to come to any conclusion. Housing will be weak but evidence suggests a bottom is on the horizon.

Also out this week was the first quarter GDP number which was down 6.1%, a bigger drop than expected. The market rallied strongly when this number came out. Welcome to the psychology of the stock market. So why would it move up? First, this number is also backward looking, but looking closer you will see that there was a large drop in inventory and exports. Managing inventory is something that traders watch closely. Inventory has fallen to a point that requires a build up over the next few months. At the same time consumer spending has gone up putting more pressure to increase inventory. Inventory building will mean a better GDP number in the future. All that is in the future and of course that is exactly what stock investors and traders react to.

On Thursday Chrysler’s bankruptcy was announced by President Obama. This is a good thing. We need to let the bankruptcy laws work. It would probably be better to let other companies file for bankruptcy as well. Did we need to save the banking system? The answer is yes. Do we need to save any other industry? The answer is no. Even in the banking system those responsible for the failed banks need to be punished, but the system needs to be supported for the short term. The real question is how long and how intrusive will the government be in private industry? One of the biggest U.S. criticisms in recent years has been foreign government involvement in foreign companies. Those companies with government backing were seen as unfairly competing with private industry. Now we, in the U.S. are doing the same thing. It damages the U.S. argument that we let free enterprise pick the winners and losers and not support otherwise failing companies with government dollars. That seems a bit hypocritical.

This morning, Friday, a stronger ISM (Institute of Supply Management) indicated that the industrial sector is picking itself up. It is still shrinking but improving. This was the fourth month in a row of an improving ISM report.

No matter what spin you put on it, the stock market is telling us that things are going to get better for the economy. History tells us that over the next year or two there will be a rally of over 50% in the stock market. This will not be a march straight up in prices. Expect pullbacks and use them to buy. Do not let fear control your decisions.

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