Video Market Commentary, May 2012, Issue 1
Friday, May 4th, 2012Add to:
This Once-Dead Market Is Heating Up.
Thursday, May 3rd, 2012Today’s Stocks and Topics: Retail Sales, Economist Nouriel Roubini vs. Michael Milken, (WAG) Walgreen Co., (REGN) Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., (BAC) Bank of America Corp., Retirement, Charles Thomas Munger, Profit Margins, (SNDK) SanDisk Corp.
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World Economies
Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012
As Brazil and Australia join India and China, and for that matter the U.S. in monetary easing to spur their economies Europe becomes less of a worry. To be sure Europe is still in the news and that ongoing brutal crisis will cause volatility but it won’t stop the rest of the world from growing. The worry will cause stock markets to stutter but that is about it. That stutter will give those still out of the market an opportunity to get in for the next leg up.
Elections in France and Greece this week will likely see weaker governments in control. The new governments will be reluctant if not downright resistant to implementing any more austerity controls. What that might mean for Greece is that they may leave the EU. That is not likely an option for France. It will mean higher interest rates for their debt, something neither country can afford. At the same time maybe the new governments will attempt some type of growth policies. The problem with that is that they can’t do it by offering cheap money. They do not control the Euro so they can’t print and inflate their way out of their problems. Therefore, what will result is confusion and fear which will push interest rates on their debt higher and that only adds to the problem.
Still, while the rest of the world is easing their monetary policies because they have room to do so, the world economy is not in jeopardy of shrinking into recession, but the economies are not robust either. Maybe that will change when Europe regains its footing but then again there is no telling when that might happen.
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The Recession Could Scare Young Investors From The Market For Good.
Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012Today’s Stocks and Topics: Home Prices, Energy, (TQNT) Triquint Semiconductor Inc., European Currency, First Time Investor, Roth I-R-A, China, (NCT) Newcastle Investment Corp.
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REITs Are they for you Should you by Russia Shocks to the market Auto Sales looking up
Tuesday, May 1st, 2012Today’s Stocks and Topics: Dividends, “QE3″, Roth IRA, (COP)ConocoPhillips, (FMU) Focus Morningstar US Market Index ETF.
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Seasons
Monday, April 30th, 2012
Continued weakness in Europe and some economic numbers put some small downward pressure on stocks. However, the basic reason stocks are weakening after making a high at the beginning of April is seasonality.
The market moves in waves. These waves form patterns. Unfortunately, the patterns are not always consistent but in general they shape markets. One strong yearly pattern is the one tied to the seasons of the year. The broad rule is that the summer months are not as strong as the winter months. The last and first quarter of the year are better than the middle two of the year. Some of this is self-fulfilling and some of it is because traders and investors go on vacation during the summer but none of it can be relied on exclusively.
We are entering the time of the year in which we tend to have more volatility and a correction or two. If we are headed into a recession the correction turns into a new bear market, but even then you could have a bear market without a recession.
As we enter May the prudent investor gets a little defensive, but he does not exit unless there is economic contraction or a recession on the horizon and even then there are ways to make money on a stock market fall. This is part of managing the risks that one takes in their portfolio.
Good Trading
Steve Peasley
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Staying in the market, Equity redemption rates, Germany Retail Sales – Euro market.
Monday, April 30th, 2012Today’s Stocks and Topics: Mutual funds, College Savings, Retirement, Set year retirement plan, College age investing, REITs, ETFs, K-1 depreciation.
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Where Stands the Cup, Half Full or Half Empty
Friday, April 27th, 2012
First quarter GDP numbers out this morning were a disappointment. We had 2.2% growth in the first quarter, and growth is much better than the alternative but the expectation was for 2.7% growth. As I have said many times the experts are always wrong when they make their projections. There was a little bright light in that the consumer spending portion of the report was up 2.9% and since our economy is 70% or so consumer driven it tells us maybe the consumer is feeling a little more confident. Then again we had unseasonably warm weather back East and in the Midwest which may have brought out the shoppers.
Like all economic factors it is never clear cut. This week was not an exception with much stronger pending homes sales and much weaker durable goods sales. For us, the people that make up our society, what does it mean? Are we gathering strength or is it a false sense of tepid improvement? Many believe it is the latter and that belief alone adds to the softness of our economy. If people have no faith they tend to hoard their cash and that slows economic activity.
I think we need to expect more of the same: slow growth, a weak economy and a poor job market. Still, we are growing; the economy is expanding and the job market has improved. Is the cup half full or half empty? I am in the half full camp.
Now if we only can get Europe to stop dragging down the world economy.
Good Trading
Steve Peasley
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Ramping Up Retirement Investing in Your 40s and 50s
Friday, April 27th, 2012Today’s Stocks and Topics: (PG) Procter and Gamble Co., (KFT) Kraft Foods Inc. Cl A, Index Investing, GDP Numbers, Natural Gas, 9 Economic Indicators to Follow, (RTN) Raytheon Co., Real Estate, (WDC) Western Digital Corp.,(SNXFX) Schwab 1000 Index Fund Investor Shares.
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