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Friday, February 3rd, 2012
The jobs report for January was a big surprise with 243,000 new jobs, dropping the unemployment rate to 8.3%. Also, the previous two months were revised upward.
These numbers are good and should be looked at in that context but it is wrong not to look deeper to get a complete picture on what is going on. One good trend is in manufacturing which continues to be the strongest growth component of job growth. Manufacturing in the U.S. is gaining strength on the back of increasing exports. I think this trend will continue. The world is becoming a flatter playing field where cheap wages in other countries are starting to look less like a big advantage. Transportation costs and U.S. productivity tilt in our favor. Also, in Asia demand for higher wages is starting to gain traction.
In one sense the jobs report is misleading. Well over one million workers dropped off the employment rolls. What happened to them? They are still unemployed. Many just stopped looking for jobs. Also, many are older workers and they may never reenter the job market as their skills wane.
We all know that the government has never properly counted the number of unemployed and underemployed but no matter how you read it January was a good month for returning workers.
Good Trading
Steve Peasley
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Friday, February 3rd, 2012
Todays Stocks and Topics (KOG) Kodiak Oil and Gas Corp., (YPF) YPF S.A. ADS, Banks, Tradeing, (TZA) Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3 x Shares, Facebook, (F) Ford Motor Co., (PGF) PowerShares Exchange Traded Fund Financial Preferred Portfolio, (AVP) Avon Products Inc.
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Thursday, February 2nd, 2012
Today’s Stocks and Topics: Money Making Ideas, The Stock Market, (MA) MasterCard Inc. Cl A, (PRGO) Perrigo Co., Cash reserve Funds, Dividends, (BMY) Bristol Myers Squibb Co., (ABT) Abbott Laboratories, (STD) Banco Santander S.A. ADS, (NOK) Nokia Corp. ADS, (XRX) Xerox Corp., (AA) Alcoa Inc.
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Wednesday, February 1st, 2012
Determining the direction of the stock market in the short run is very difficult. There are so many unforeseen factors that can disrupt the most diligent analysis that calling an up or down market is akin to looking into a crystal ball. You need only look back to 2011 and the earthquake in Japan that disrupted the worldwide supply to understand how difficult projections can be. The economist that forecasted 3% growth in the U.S. can’t factor in natural disasters. They also underestimated the impact of the European debt crisis on our stock market.
This does not mean you should not make the effort to gauge the strength or weakness of the future economy, but one should always understand the weaknesses of that effort.
If the economy grows stock prices generally go up and if it shrinks it falls. The economic cycle runs ‘behind’ the stock market cycle. If one can broadly predict the economic cycle then it is easier to understand the stock market cycle. Stock markets move up at bottoms of the economic cycle and fall before the economy falters.
The effort is difficult but worth it, warts and all.
Good Trading
Steve Peasley
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Wednesday, February 1st, 2012
Today’s Stocks and Topics: (SWI) SolarWinds Inc., (JRCC) James River Coal Co., The Stock Market, Stock Purchasing, (TRV) Travelers Cos. Inc., (DMND) Diamond Foods Inc., Gold, (AAPL) Apple Inc.
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