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Tuesday, January 31st, 2012
We have had a long run starting in the middle of December of rising stock prices. We are now near the highs made last May and June. Last summer we fell to the lows of the year and at that time we suggested that you buy the market. Today is a time to begin to sell the market.
This moving money in and out is often called market timing and it has not been in favor with established opinions by the large institutions or for that matter the SEC. However, ever since the dot.com collapse of 2000 the stock market has been in a Secular Bear mood. If you bought the indexes in 2000 you would still be at loss today in 2012. In the 1990’s we were in a Secular Bull market and buy and holding stocks would have worked, but no longer. At some point we will return to a Secular Bull market but until then you need to be more cautious.
Recognized swings in the market such as we have seen for 11 years is a prudent way to reduce risk and try and maximize return. It does not always work but often enough to make the effort valuable. It does not mean you sell completely out and then put it all back in at one time. It is more of an effort to capture as much of the upside and not be caught unprepared for the downside. Then when the market completes its correction buy back in those stocks that are on sale.
It is never easy but it is rewarding.
Good Trading
Steve Peasley
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Tuesday, January 31st, 2012
Today’s Stocks and Topics: (XOM) Exxon Mobil Corp., (BP) BP PLC ADS, (AMZN) Amazon.com Inc., Dividends, Bonds, (GBDC) Golub Capital BDC Inc., Investing in Wealth Preservation, (PETS) PetMed Express Inc., (INTC) Intel Corp.
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Monday, January 30th, 2012
Today’s Stocks and Topics: (LO) Lorillard Inc., (CLF) Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., (NOK) Nokia Corp., (LINE) Linn Energy LLC, (TNH) Terra Nitrogen Co. L.P., Commitment of Traders – COT Chart, Cash Flow.
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Friday, January 27th, 2012
This morning the first look at the fourth quarter GDP number was released. It rebounded from a low 1.7% in the third quarter to 2.8% in the fourth. That was less than the more optimistic expectation of 3%. For all of 2011 the GDP number looks to be about 1.8%. We won’t have a final number for another month or two and by that time we won’t care. In fact looking back to the fourth quarter is interesting but does us little good when investing in the market.
As an investor and trader you need to look forward and in doing so we see complacency, or in other words, too many people are expecting calm and that the market will continue to rise. That will not last. We have had a period of low volatility so far this year and history is likely to reassert itself so expect a pick up in movement but not necessarily to the upside in the short term.
The market is cheap and fundamentally it appears that this year will be good one for stocks but there will be swings up and down and we are due for a down movement. That movement will give everyone an opportunity. Do not fear the coming correction but use it to your advantage.
Good Trading
Steve Peasley
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Friday, January 27th, 2012
Today’s Stocks and Topics: Apple’s Billions,(WPRT) Westport Innovations Inc., (DE) Deere and Co., I-R-A, Warren Buffet, (GLW) Corning Inc., (FCX) Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc., Federal Reserve, Charting.
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