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July 2, 2010 – 4:58 pm

The all important jobs report for June was released this morning with great anticipation. It was anticlimactic. Everyone expected a loss of about 125,000 jobs and that is what happened. However, since we lost 200,000 temporary census jobs the focus was on private sector jobs. That went up 80,000 more than last month. There were no surprises in the report.

Of course this only means the weak recovery is still not producing much in the way of new jobs. The unemployment claims this week went up which was unexpected as the four week average begins to flatten. The four week average for unemployment claims smoothes out the weekly numbers that can be erratic. In recent weeks that average has been going down but just like all the other economic numbers things are softening.

It is normal for an economic recovery from a recession to have a soft spot and it appears that is what we are in. In only one recession in the last 70 years has a double dip recession occurred and that was probably due to a rise in interest rates by the Fed to fight inflation. We don’t have that problem in this recession. More of a risk is the degree of the slowdown in Asia, a slowdown they are engineering on purpose.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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