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Jobs: A Scarce Resource

May 4, 2012 – 4:59 pm

No matter what kind of spin you put on it, 115,000 new jobs created in April as reported this morning is not nearly enough. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% but everybody knows that is misleading to the point of being downright wrong. The real unemployment rate is between 14% to 16% but then again we really do not know. A more important and relevant number is the percentage of our labor-force that is working and that is 63.6% from 63.8% last month. That is not good and is going in the wrong direction.

The little bit of good news is that they revised upward the jobs created in the previous two months; Too little and too late.

Maybe we are seeing the drag on our economy from the 11 countries in Europe that are in recession or the slower growth in China and its effect. Both of those are probably true.

The real issue is are we going to continue to expand our economy or are we going to fall into a recession? It does not look like we will fall into a recession. In fact there are signs that future economic expansion might pick up ever so slightly. See this week’s KPP Newsletter for more on that.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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