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Look Behind the Numbers

December 7, 2012 – 6:08 pm

Of course this morning the focus was on the monthly jobs report, a report that was expected to be influenced by hurricane Sandy last month. The surprise was that there was little or no influence as the number of new jobs created came in at a better than expected 146,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7% which was a sharp drop. However, the drop was due almost entirely because of people dropping out of the job market, not because enough jobs were created to push the rate down.

Our economy is not growing enough jobs to put back to work those people that lost their jobs in the recession of 2008 and 2009. At 146,000 per month that is barely enough to keep the recent college graduates and new entrants to the work force earning some money. This poor pace of new jobs has been persistent and there appears to be little reason for it to change in the next few months.

The reality for 2013 is probably more of the same both for the workers and our economy. You can put on those rose colored glasses and focus on a lower unemployment rate but that is pretending that things are getting better, rather than facing the truth.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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