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The Economic Hole

September 10, 2009 – 10:04 am

Economic reality is starting to make itself felt as the numbers continue to improve. That reality is that we are digging our way out of a deep hole but we are still in the hole.

This morning the foreclosure rate for August fell 1%. That was the first fall in months but at the same time a record number of new foreclosures were reported for the same month. Also, new jobless claims fell by a bigger than expected 26,000, a trend that has clearly changed as the peak of unemployment claims was well over 600,000 not too many months ago. Today those claims are 550,000. The problem is at 550,000 that is clearly a very poor job market number. Anything over 350,000 is considered a sign of a weak jobs market.

Finally, both imports and exports increased in July, a sign of an improving world economy. Imports outstripped exports but both numbers are good in that economic activity is increasing.

These numbers tell us that the economic hole is not getting deeper and we are slowing filling it in, but we have a long way to go. The direction is good, and there are many factors in place to allow us to continue in that direction.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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