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What is Important

August 29, 2012 – 4:58 pm

As August ends many investors will be breathing a sigh of relief having survived the summer doldrums in stock prices. Unfortunately, August as a trading month is not the weakest of the year and in fact it is third. The weakest month for stock prices historically is September. That is the month we are entering.

Also, don’t put any weight on trading volume. The month of August historically is the lightest trading volume month of the year but it really does not mean much.

These two data sets, September being the weakest month and August being the lowest trading volume are interesting but when it comes to managing money are meaningless.

Can we say that a lack of volume means that the stocks market will move one way or another? No. Can we assume since September has proven to be the weakest month of the year that we should exit the market? No. Volume is weak because of vacations by traders and investors, and September, being the weakest month, only means that if the market moves down it moves down a bit more in September and if it moves up it moves up a bit less than the overall market.

What is important is to be aware of the all the market’s historical data sets, understand the economics of the times and buy stocks that have earnings and sales growth at reasonable prices. The rest is managing the risks of a portfolio given the circumstances you are in.

Good Trading
Steve Peasley

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